Forecasting future developments in poker is usually about as reliable as trying to predict a flop, turn, and river.  However, there’s far more than a 52-card deck’s worth of possibilities for players and industry personnel.  Whether the subject is card rooms, online poker, or major tournaments, 2010 promises to be a defining year for our game.  The upcoming year could very well be a definitive point in time, shaping poker for many years to come.  Here’s a look ahead at what to expect through the end of the year:

Poker Rooms

For the first time since New Jersey and Connecticut legalized poker nearly two decades ago, poker will enjoy its greatest expansion in the Eastern U.S. Pennsylvania’s recent legalization of table games, including poker, at its seven land-based casinos and horse tracks will add perhaps 150 poker tables to what’s already a thriving poker region.  There’s talk of not just one, but two large poker rooms opening in casinos near Philadelphia.  One card room, proposed in the northeastern part of the city, could contain as many as 60 tables, according to reports.

There’s a good chance that poker will further expand in Florida, where the cap on betting limits could be lifted at the state’s casinos, racetracks, and jai alai frontons.  It’s hard to believe what the climate was like just a few years ago, when the maximum pot size in Florida was just $10.  Years of infighting have finally pushed Florida to the brink of offering full-scale poker rooms, with nationally recognized poker tournaments [1].  Hours of operation are also likely to expand at casinos from 12 hours to 18 on weekdays and around-the-clock on weekends.  However, tribal gaming will likely raise the minimum gambling age from 18 to 21 to broaden support.

For the first time, Delaware is primed to become a destination for serious poker players, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic region.  Three racetracks are expected to add table games in coming months, including poker.  On the surface, Delaware might not seem like a huge potential market, but given its close proximity to Baltimore (60 miles away) and Washington, D.C. (100), its poker tables should be packed from day one.

Poker in West Virginia continues to prosper despite complaints about higher than average table rakes.  West Virginia thrives largely because it siphons off gamblers from larger neighboring states such as Maryland, Virginia, and Ohio.  So long as these states remain dark for poker players, West Virginia’s future prospects are good.

Things are not as rosy for poker players residing in the Midwest and West.  Given the lagging economy, expect the number of poker facilities elsewhere to remain stagnant.  In some respects, this is good news.  At least casinos will not be closing down their poker rooms anytime soon, which usually requires high renovation costs to convert from poker to slot and video parlors.  As long as poker can break even or achieve modest gains at most venues, it will remain.

The bad news is for card room personnel, especially mid-level executives and floor staff.  Look for more layoffs in poker, especially in the hardest hit markets such as Atlantic City, casinos in the upper Midwest, and smaller rural venues, which are now struggling.  Expect gaming personnel to be increasingly cross-trained, which means converting dealers and supervisors working in other gaming areas to poker.

Online Poker

The deck remains stacked against online poker’s legalization at the federal level in 2010.  Despite the noblest efforts of Congressman Barney Frank (D-MA) and Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ), co-sponsors of two pro-poker bills, and the Poker Players Alliance (PPA), the obstacles remain too sticky to overcome.  Arguably, the biggest problem is the lack of support from Congressional Democratic leadership, particularly Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).  Optimists hope to convert Reid to online poker’s side, but until he’s pressured by some of the major gaming corporations, don’t expect movement in the Senate, where possible gains made in the House are likely to extinguish in committee.

Look for intrastate online gambling to be approved for the first time ever in New Jersey.  In January, the Garden State took the first step towards becoming the launching pad for legalized online poker inside the United States.  A new bill was introduced in the state assembly that would allow citizens to vote on a constitutional amendment permitting intrastate internet gambling, which includes poker.  The new law would allow casino games to be played online by state residents [2].  The New Jersey Casino Control Commission would create a new division responsible for licensing and regulating the operators and games.  Pro-poker forces are probably a favorite in the upcoming fight.

Expect another delay in the implementation of UIEGA.  A few months ago, Treasury Department officials (who were lobbied hard by industry insiders) decided to delay carrying out the notorious 2006 law.  This meant that online poker operators could pretty much continue unabated, at least until June 1, 2010.  The current stalemate benefits multiple parties, including banks, who bristle at being burdened with added responsibility.  Another mid-year delay is likely, which will be another victory for online operators continuing to thrive in the U.S. market and loyal online poker players.

Look for other regions to relax their restrictions on online poker.  Government officials in Quebec are now actively discussing online gambling legalization.  While the legal situation in Canada is murky given the provincial framework, should Quebec take steps, look for similar movements in other provinces and eventually a friendly pro-online national policy to be debated.

Expect to see Harrah’s Active Entertainment (HIE) take a slow, steady, and methodical approach to its entrance into the online business.  Presently, Harrah’s won’t make as much noise in the online poker market as it will perhaps in mobile and social network applications, but HIE remains an 800-pound gorilla should the legal landscape inside the U.S. change anytime soon.

Poker Tournaments

The big news is the launch of the North American Poker Tour (NAPT), with multiple events expected in the U.S. and Canada.   Given the support by PokerStars and guaranteed television coverage on ESPN, all of the steps are in place for a successful tournament circuit.  The NAPT becomes the fourth U.S.-based poker tour after the success of the World Poker Tour (WPT), Heartland Poker Tour (HPT), and the World Series of Poker (WSOP) Circuits.

One question some ask is will the NAPT dilute the financially-strapped poker player pool or make it bigger?  Will the NAPT attract more players to land-based events?  This is questionable, but the guaranteed support of gargantuan PokerStars not only provides essential financial backing, but also could set a new industry standard for poker tournaments.

The WPT is currently in its eighth season.  New venues joined the tour, including stops for the first time in Italy and Cyprus.  The WPT remains the only bona fide global poker series.  However, three rival tours inside the United States and the European Poker Tour (EPT) abroad now pressure it.  The WPT’s strength remains its close affiliation with several established poker hotspots including the Bellagio, Commerce Casino, Bicycle Club, Beau Rivage, Foxwoods, and Borgata.

The WSOP recently announced its 2010 schedule, which will remain fixed at 57 events.  This is the same number of tournaments offered during each of the past two years.  This decision was sensible given so much uncertainty about the economy.  The WSOP expanded the number of bargain-priced events for 2010, most evident by offering seven $1,000 buy-in No Limit Hold’em tournaments.  Each of these events should attract between 3,000 and 6,000 players, guaranteeing heavy traffic inside the Rio.  Based on last year’s near-record attendance figures, all indications are that the WSOP remains recession-proof.

The HPT should probably get corporate sponsorship from Eveready Batteries.  It’s the Energizer Bunny of poker tournaments, quietly just going and going and going.  The 14-event national tour has not only become hugely successful, but also profitable.  Now entering its sixth year, the HPT does more with less than any other poker operation.  The secret to the HPT’s success remains its partnership with many lesser-known poker venues that sometimes feel left out of the shuffle by the WPT and WSOP.

Demographics indicate continuing growth for poker.  It’s hard to say if there will be a “Joe Cada Effect,” but there’s no question that by the end of 2010, another three to four million young people will be eligible to play in poker rooms for the first time.  The number of young people coming into the game far outpaces the number of players who leave.

Until this year, poker’s future was arguably brighter outside the U.S. than within it.  Worldwide, poker’s flag is now planted in more countries than ever before.  Outside of the U.S., poker should continue to thrive, especially in Europe, where economic worries do not appear to be harming poker rooms, online play, or tournament attendance.  However, given poker’s expansion in many U.S. states and initiatives to legalize online gambling, the U.S. market could be entering a renaissance.

Footnotes

[1] Full-scale poker rooms in Florida require an agreement among tribes, gaming companies, and the State.  Presently, it’s the State’s turn to act.  Poker players have reason for optimism, however, since Governor Charlie Crist has expressed some support for gambling expansion.

[2] New Jersey State Senator Raymond J. Lesniak, a Democrat from Union, introduced the bill in the legislature.  Newly elected Republican Governor Chris Christie has endorsed expanding gambling, which taken collectively is an early sign of bipartisan support.

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